Ed Hill Poker - Poker Articles

General Poker Theorem

Authored by: Ed Hill

The game is great, every pot is capped!!!

We have all heard this statement many times. These games on the surface appear to be great, you have a chance to win a huge pot. The thrill of winning a monster pot is the adrenaline rush that many poker players feed on. But how profitable are these games to a winning player?

What makes certain people winning players? They follow the “Fundamental Poker Theorem” which is a concept that David Sklansky addresses in his book “Theory of Poker.”

Fundamental Poker Theorem

“Every time you play a hand differently from the way you would have played it if you
could see all of your opponents’ cards, they gain; and every time you play your hand the
same way you would have played it if you could see all their cards, they lose. Conversely, every time opponents play their hands differently from the way they would have if they could see all your cards, you gain; and every time they play their hands the same way they would have played if they could see all your cards, you lose.

When all the pots are capped before the flop, you and your opponents are getting tremendous pot odds to draw to any hand. The game is now a crap shoot:
Raises don’t knock players out of the pot.
Every pot will be multi-way to the river.
But worst of all; EVERY OPPONENT IS GETTING THE RIGHT ODDS TO DRAW TO THEIR HAND!!!

One of the ways that you make money playing poker is that your opponents will draw to a hand not taking into consideration the odds that they are getting. If your opponent has an inside straight draw with one card to come he has 4 chances out of 46 of hitting that card, which makes him a 10.5 to 1 underdog. If he is willing to take odds of five or six to one, you are getting to book a terrific bet. If he is getting greater odds than 10.5 to 1 you are gaining nothing when you opponent calls, he is not making a mistake!!!

After the flop, ususally the only players that make mistakes in games where the pots are being capped before the flop are the people that are attempting to play good. These players will be folding when they should be calling. The weak players, who are caught up in the game will ironically be playing correctly because they are not going to be making the mistake of throwing a hand away that has a small chance of winning the pot. In this particular situation the weaker players are outplaying the stronger ones.

The only edge that can be derived is that you can outplay your opponents before flop. In games like this your implied odds are tremendously damaged because of the amount of money that you are being charged to see the flop. Therefore, you have to play only your best hands which are; big pairs, two big suited cards, and perhaps AK. More hands can be played if you are in late position and can get in for a “reasonable” amount of money. This means that you are virtually never playing a hand. The problem with playing this tight in a regular game is that it becomes easy for you opponents to read you and not give you any action when you have a hand. This doesn’t hurt you in games like this, the pots are so big that you will get more action than you desire when you have a hand.

Michael Scott sent e-mail asking the following question. Could you offer a “rule of thumb” for estimating the pots odds you should have to call with a hand that probably needs to hit runner runner to win the pot?

% that hand is completed odds to one
3 flush .0416 23 to 1
3 straight (no gaps) .0444 21.5 to 1
3 straight (1 gap) .0296 32.75 to 1
3 straight (2 gaps) .0148 66.5 to 1

You have to take into consideration that you can have additional outs. Do you have overcards or a pair to go along with your draw? You could hit runner runner to make trips or two pair when you flopped a backdoor draw. You can have a three flush and a three straight (no gaps) then you are less than 12 to 1 to backdoor one of them.

Taking all of this into consideration, you can make do with less odds than the ones stated above.

Consensus:
These games are not very profitable, you do not have the edge that you have in a normal game.
1. You have to be willing to virtually throw every hand away before the flop.
2. Most of the hands that you do play will not win the pot and it might be hours before you get to play another one.
3. Your fluctuations will be much larger than normal.
4. The skills of making a good laydown and saving a bet, or getting an extra bet out of an opponent, are removed.
5. The ability to read a hand or situation is gone.
6. Bluffing and semi-bluffing don’t apply.

The beauty of poker is that there are numerous options available to the player, the people that are capable of choosing the right one at the right time are the winners, providing that they can control their tempers. A lot of the skills that make poker the beautiful game that it is are removed when the pots are being capped before the flop. All in all it takes tremendous discipline and a big bankroll to get involved in these types of games. It seems to me that everybody else will be frothing at the mouth to get into this game, therefore it should be easy to transfer to another game that is much calmer.

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